Category: Market Week In Review

The start to the week was not much of a surprise. Major indexes pulled back from record highs set the previous week. Those highs were from overextended mega-caps and the daily gains were not shared broadly across the market. We were watching for a day with broader gains and higher volume.

There are some interesting questions to answer this week. How much of the economic recovery is already priced into the equity markets? Are investors done with the value trade and moving back to growth, or does value still have more gains ahead? Does the market really see inflation as a threat or is it just necessary and transitionary in the current cycle?

The story of the week was the strength of big tech as the four largest mega-caps broke out of bases and drove indexes and their respective sectors higher. The week also saw a breakout of growth stocks relative to value stocks after a few months of rotation. It’s still yet to be determined if the trends will stick, but the charts show a positive trend.

This week marked the end of the first quarter of 2021, a quarter of volatility driven by the retail frenzy around meme stocks, a steepening yield curve caused by inflation fears and the landing of over a trillion dollars of support to the economy.

The week started with supply chain issues as a semiconductor plant in Japan was on fire. The week also ended with supply chain issues as a container ship remained stuck in the Suez Canal, blocking a major shipping route. The blockage caused oil prices to spike and more pressure on an already stressed supply chain.

This week was marked by a battle between the markets and the fed. Investors had to choose what to believe and how to respond. The week started with some nervousness on Monday morning with investors buying up defensive stocks in Utilities in the morning. By afternoon, that nervousness faded as treasury bond yields declined and confidence grew as the market rallied.

It was a wild week of rotation instigated by volatility in the treasury bond markets. Economists and investors weighed the impact of stimulus on inflation , currencies, bonds and equities. The outcomes could have opposite effects on different sectors.

There is a lot to look at in reviewing this past week’s market. An outsized rotation among sectors presented itself as a correction in the Nasdaq. The rotation pulled the index down 10% from all-time highs, the level typically viewed as correction in a market. If you kept your eyes only on the Nasdaq, you might have missed that eight out of the eleven sectors defined by the SPDR ETFs ended the week with positive gains. Several sectors never dipped into the negative.

It started on Monday with a gap down to open the week, a brief climb in the morning, and then a sell-off that would set the tone for the rest of the week.

The short week brought a lot of choppiness in the equity markets. There was a mid-day reversal every day of the week. Tuesday was the gap-up that sold off in the afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday started with morning selling that was bought back in the second half of the sessions. Friday finished the week with a rise in the morning only to lose those gains in the afternoon.