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Your judgment matters most when certainty is out of reach.
by Drew Robbins
3 min read
Grow with Purpose
Make grounded decisions without complete certainty, then use what happens next to learn, adjust, and move forward.
I've long believed that the ability to make a decision and move forward is a key differentiator in the workplace. Yet, the more responsibility you take on, the less likely someone is to hand you complete information or tell you exactly what to do. AI can give you more answers and options, but it cannot tell you which one deserves your commitment. At some point, you still have to use your judgment.
Hesitation is easy to mistake for responsibility. You ask for another forecast, schedule one more stakeholder meeting, or revise the proposal again because you want to be sure. Each step looks reasonable on its own. But the team is still waiting, the opportunity is getting smaller, and the decision you postponed is starting to get made for you.
I've done this myself. I've spent too long focused on my doubts instead of making the decision.
More information does not always make the decision easier. The 2024 review On the Advantages and Disadvantages of Choice: Future Research Directions in Choice Overload and Its Moderators found that when a decision exceeds our cognitive resources, we are more likely to delay the choice and feel less confident about it. Another forecast, analysis, or draft may look like progress while giving you one more reason to avoid making the call.
Waiting is not a neutral choice. It can cost your team momentum, reduce the options still available, and leave other people to make assumptions about where the work is headed.
Start by separating what you need to know from what would simply be nice to know. Then ask one question:
Which unanswered question could genuinely change my decision?
If you cannot name one, more analysis is unlikely to give you the certainty you want.
Then make the next small decision that creates useful evidence. Run the pilot with one customer group. Ask for a two-week stretch assignment instead of waiting for a new title. Send the proposal to the person whose response will change your next step. Movement gives you something hesitation never can: real information about what works.
A good decision cannot guarantee a good outcome. All real decisions are made under uncertainty.
— Ward Edwards
A sound decision gives you a clear reason for the choice you made and a basis for what to do next, even when the outcome disappoints. You decide with the information available, watch what happens, and adjust without treating every imperfect result as proof that you should have waited.
Where are you asking for more certainty when what you really need is to make a judgment?
Try This
Choose one stalled decision. Write down what you know, what remains unknown, and what waiting is already costing you. Set a deadline within the next five working days.
Notice What Happens
Notice whether deciding unlocks next steps, gives other people something to respond to, and shows you what you need to learn next.
Share or Reflect
Ask a trusted colleague, ‘Am I missing something important, or am I waiting to feel certain?’
Keep Going
Make the decision, watch what happens, and choose whether to continue, adjust, or stop based on what you learn.
You will not have complete certainty before every decision. Make the best call you can with what you know, then adjust when you learn more.
References
Misuraca, R., Nixon, A. E., Miceli, S., Di Stefano, G., & Scaffidi Abbate, C. (2024). On the advantages and disadvantages of choice: Future research directions in choice overload and its moderators. Frontiers in Psychology, 15, 1290359. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11111947/
