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Friday, March 11, 2022
Facts: -2.18%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 94% Red
Bad: Mostly red body, lost support at 13,000
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Outside day, long red body, tiny wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.44, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes:SPX (-1.30%), DJI (-0.69%), RUT (-1.59%), VIX (+1.72%)
Sector List: Utilities ( XLU -0.34%) and Financials ( XLF -0.71%) at the top. Communications ( XLC -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY -1.92%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
Markets ended a choppy week with another losing session. Growth sectors sold off the most as investors moved to safer assets for the weekend.
The Nasdaq closed lower by -2.18% on higher volume than the previous day. The 94% red body is surrounded by tiny upper and lower wicks. A 3% closing range represents the selling throughout the day and into the final minutes of the market. There were more than two stocks that declined for every advancing stock.
All S&P 500 sectors declined today. Utilities ( XLU -0.34%) and Financials ( XLF -0.71%) were at the top. Communications ( XLC -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY -1.92%) had the biggest declines.
Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment for March were lower than forecast, possibly weighed down by the war in Ukraine.
The US Dollar index ( DXY ) rose +0.61%. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y yields rose. High Yield ( HYG ) and Investment Grade ( LQD ) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil prices rose but remained below $110 a barrel. Silver and Gold declined, but not much compared to the rising strength of the US dollar .
The put/call ratio ( PCCE ) rose to 0.863. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 42.58, from 30.3 the previous week. The survey of money managers is taken on Wednesday evenings and the market rose this past Wednesday before dipping again on Thursday and Friday.
Only two of the stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained. Chewy ( CHWY ) rose +2.27% while Solar Edge ( SEDG ) gained +0.89%. Five of the growth stocks declined more than 10%. DocuSign ( DOCU ) fell -20.10% after providing weak guidance and an analyst downgraded the stock and dropped its price target from $175 to $100.
There is not much scheduled US economic news to start the week. Wednesday will bring the Fed’s meeting and final interest rate decisions.
Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq held for a while around the 13,000 mark but then dropped below that area later in the afternoon.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line , that would mean a +1.79% gain for Monday.
The trend line from the 2/10 high, points to a +0.53% advance.
The one-day trend leads to a -1.56% decline to start the week.
It was a crazy week. It looked like investors were optimistic on Wednesday but the gains were given back to losses by the end of the day Friday. Given the big decline was likely from investors closing positions to avoid bad news over the weekend, we might see a bounce on Monday. However, expect more volatility until we find a firm bottom with support.
The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
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