Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
Facts: +2.40%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 60% Green
Good: Broad gain with high advance/decline ratio , high closing range
Bad: Lower volume
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Large green body at top of candle, long lower wick
Advance/Decline: 2.9, almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock
Indexes:SPX (+1.78%), DJI (+1.60%), RUT (+2.95%), VIX (-8.13%)
Sector List: Energy ( XLE +2.85%) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY +2.59%) at the top. Consumer Staples ( XLP -0.13%) and Utilities ( XLU -0.14%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
The Nasdaq climbed by +2.40%. Volume was lower than the previous day and below the 50-day average. The candle has a 60% green body above a long lower wick. The closing range of 98% shows a bullish day all the way into the close. There were nearly 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock.
Small-caps outperformed, sending the Russell 2000 (RUT) up by +2.95%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.78% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +1.60%. The VIXVolatility index declined -8.13%.
The US Dollar index ( DXY ) declined -0.17%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all advanced for the day. High Yield ( HYG ) and Investment Grade ( LQD ) Corporate Bond Prices rose. Crude Oil Prices rebounded from yesterday’s dip. Timber, Copper , and Aluminum all advanced .
All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Microsoft ( MSFT ) gained +2.31%. Amazon ( AMZN ) rose by +2.00%. Apple (APPL) climbed +1.91%. Alphabet ( GOOGL ) advanced +1.32%. Only Apple is trading above its 21d EMA and 50d MA.
Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list with a +6.94% gain. Nike ( NKE ) also climbed over 6% after exceeding expectations on earnings . Pfizer ( PFE ) declined -3.39% landing at the bottom of the list. Yesterday, Pfizer was the top mega-cap while Alibaba (BABA) was the bottom.
The Daily Update Growth List had only two declining stocks. The biggest gainer was Sea Limited (SE), which rose +10.82%. After topping the list yesterday, Chewy ( CHWY ) was at the bottom of the list today, declining -2.30%.
Tomorrow will kick off with an update to GDP for Q3 before the market opens.
Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dipped after a gap-up at open, getting support at 15,000 before climbing the rest of the day to close near the intraday high.
If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, expect a +2.32% gain.
If the index returns to the high from the 11/22 high or the five-day trend line , that would mean a -1.76% decline.
Fears over Omicron seem to be as volatile as the market. The upside reversal today is a positive sign, but don’t get too comfortable too quick. We can still see a lot of up and downs, especially with the lower volume that will only get lower as we head into the final week of December.
Based on the chart, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
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