Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
Tuesday, June 29, 2021
Facts: +0.19%, Volume higher, Closing range: 88%, Body: 30%
Good: Green candle on higher volume , great closing range
Bad: The low A/D line
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Thin green body in the upper half of the candle, longer lower wick
Advanced/Decline: 0.43, two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes:SPX (+0.03%), DJI (+0.03%), RUT (-0.58%), VIX (+1.78%)
Sectors: Technology ( XLK +0.73%) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY +0.25%) at the top. Communications ( XLC -0.54%) and Utilities ( XLU -1.62%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Lower
The Nasdaq finished with a +0.19% gain after dipping in the morning. The dip created a longer lower wick, under a 30% green body that ended the day with a 88% closing range. The higher volume did not translate into broad gains. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) both gained a modest +0.03%. The spinning top candle on the SPX is indicating indecision in the market. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.58% for the day.
Technology ( XLK +0.73%) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY +0.25%) were at the top of the sector list with only one other sector, Health ( XLV +011%), ending the day with gains. Communications ( XLC -0.54%) and Utilities ( XLU -1.62%) were at the bottom of the list.
The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields declined.
The put/call ratio rose to 0.524. The put/call ratio ( PCCE ) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish .
The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral.
Apple ( AAPL ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) drove much of the significant gains in the index, with +1.15% and +1.00% advances. Amazon ( AMZN ) also gained for the day with a +0.12% advance. Alphabet ( GOOGL ) fell -0.22%. All four are trading above key moving average lines and considered in uptrends.
Nike ( NKE ), Abbot Labs ( ABT ), Home Depot (HD), and Apple ( AAPL ) led the mega-cap list, which is about 50% gainers. At the bottom of the list are Tesla ( TSLA ), Intel ( INTC ), Walt Disney (DIS), and Bank of America ( BAC ).
The daily update growth stock list has DoorDash (DASH), Upwork ( UPWK ), JD .com ( JD ), and UP Fintech ( TIGR ) at the top of the list with greater than 3% gains. At the bottom of the growth list are MongoDB ( MDB ), Palantir ( PLTR ), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Ehang Holdings (EH).
This week’s closely watched employment data starts to come in on Wednesday. It begins with an update on Nonfarm Employment before the market opens. In addition, pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories are available after the market open.
Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq continued to move higher today. It’s hard to judge support areas without a retest, but there could be support at 14,350 if the index pulls back.
The five-day trend-line points to a +0.39% gain for Wednesday.
The one-day trend line results in a +0.21% gain.
The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a -0.23% decline.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to march higher thanks to the mega-caps today and good consumer confidence numbers. However, after two days of gains contrasted with a declining A/D line, the expectation is or sideways or lower tomorrow.
The counter to those inputs is the higher volume on the gain today. That could translate to investors spreading out investments tomorrow, a higher A/D line, and possibly another move higher. Add in variability in that it’s the last day of the quarter, and we start a new earnings season expected to show strength.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
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