Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
Thursday, June 24, 2021
Facts: +0.69%, Volume lower, Closing range: 54% (w/gap), Body: 15%
Good: Low above yesterday’s high creates bullish rising window, high A/D ratio
Bad: Lower volume
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Thin green body near middle of candle, gap up at open, longer upper wick
Advanced/Decline: 1.79, Three gaining stocks for every two declining stocks
Indexes:SPX (+0.58%), DJI (+0.95%), RUT (+1.31%), VIX (-2.15%)
Sectors: Financials ( XLF +1.25%) and Communications ( XLC +0.94%) at top. Utilities ( XLU -0.09%) and Real Estate ( XLRE -0.47%) at bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record closes today, and gains were broad across sectors and stocks. The Russell 2000 also had gains ahead of the $10 trillion-dollar rebalancing happening this weekend.
The Nasdaq opened the day with a gap-up and ended with a +0.69% gain. Like yesterday, it could not hold an intraday high set mid-day, retreating near the opening price. The 15% green body is under a 54% closing range. The two-day rising window pattern is a bullish continuation pattern. Three stocks advanced for every declining stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed best among the major indices for another day, gaining +1.31% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.58%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.95%.
The US 30y Treasury bond yield declined while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields advanced . Yields overall remain steady after last week’s reaction to the Fed.
The put/call ratio rose to 0.540. The put/call ratio ( PCCE ) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish .
The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral.
The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.86 this week.
Eli Lilly ( LLY ), Tesla ( TSLA ), ASML Holding ( ASML ), and PayPal ( PYPL ) were the top mega-caps for the day. Only a handful of mega-caps declined for the day, with Mastercard (MA), Apple ( AAPL ), Oracle ( ORCL ), and Amazon ( AMZN ) at the bottom of the list.
The majority of growth stocks in the daily update list had gains today. At the top of the list are Digital Turbine (APPS), Upwork ( UPWK ), Peloton (PTON), and Fastly ( FSLY ). Conversely, the worst performing for the day was Ehang Holding (EH), Beyond Meat ( BYND ), RH ( RH ), and MongoDB ( MDB ).
More consumer pricing data released on Friday morning will give another boost to inflation worries but may be tempered by the fact that the Fed is now willing to control inflation . Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment are also important data to be available after the market opens.
Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq continues its move higher, approaching 14,500.
The five-day trend-line points to a +0.76% gain for Friday.
The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to no gain for tomorrow.
The one-day trend-line would continue the fade from today’s highs and result in a -0.27% decline.
Investors continue to be bullish this week, sending the index higher every day of the week. The chart would say that Friday will make it a perfect week with another gain. Volume should undoubtedly be higher tomorrow while the Russell 3000 (RUT) rebalances 10 trillion dollars.
Still, after record-setting closes, there shouldn’t be any surprise if investors take some profits here and we see some pullback. The expectation is for sideways or higher, but a healthy pullback is OK too.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
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