Daily Market Update for 4/15

Original Chart

Notes

The private indicator I use to draw the large candles on the Daily Market Update chart is not working today (you can also see the issue looking at previous daily updates). Until its fixed, I’ll include just the daily summary data at the top of the chart and include an additional daily candlestick chart in the report below.

Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.

Thursday, April 15, 2021

snapshot

Facts: +1.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 87%, Body: 71%
Good: Higher high, higher low, close above 14,000
Bad: Nothing
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Mostly body with about equal upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks
Indexes:SPX (+1.11%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.42%), VIX (-2.47%)
Sectors: Real Estate ( XLRE +1.90%) and Technology ( XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial ( XLF -0.09%) and Energy ( XLE -0.81%) were bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher

Market Overview

Positive economic data gave a kick in the right direction to equity markets, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average to close again at all-time highs. The day was owned by the bulls with just a few pullbacks, but still the gains were not felt by everyone, with more stocks declining than advancing.

The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.31% gain on higher volume . The candle, made up of mostly a green body, has a closing range of 87% about even upper and lower wicks. A higher high and higher low provides direction to the previous days outside range.

The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 1.31% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +1.11%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had gains for the day, advancing 0.42%.

The VIX volatility index declined -2.47%.

Real Estate ( XLRE +1.90%) and Technology ( XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial ( XLF -0.09%) and Energy ( XLE -0.81%) were the only losing sectors for the day.

Economic Indicators

The US Dollar DXY ) rose +0.04%.

The US 30y treasury bond yield, and US 10y and 2y note yields all declined for the day.

Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond ( HYG ) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond ( LQD advanced for the day. The High Yield bond prices made a move upward after basing for a few weeks.

Silver SILVER ) both Gold GOLD advanced Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced .

Investor Sentiment

The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.571. The put/call ratio ( PCCE ) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish ) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market.

The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area, moving just a bit to the greed side.

The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 96.57.

Market Leaders

The four big mega-caps all gained for the day after pulling back yesterday. Microsoft MSFT ) and Alphabet GOOGL ) closed at new all-time highs. Apple AAPL ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) are continuing breakouts but have a ways to go to new all-time highs.

Nvidia NVDA ), UnitedHealth ( UNH ), PayPal ( PYPL ) and Adobe ( ADBE ) topped the mega-cap list with gains of +2.5% and higher. At the bottom of the list were Bank of America ( BAC ), Taiwan Semiconductor ( TSM ), Walt Disney (DIS) and Exxon Mobil XOM ).

Growth stocks were mixed with Okta OKTA ), CloudFlare (NET), ROKU (ROKU) and MongoDB MDB ) topping the list with over 3% gains. At the bottom of the list are Digital Turbine (APPS), UP Fintech (TIGER), Enphase ( ENPH ) and Solar Edge ( SEDG ).

DELL Technologies (DELL) rose +6.71% on news that they will spin-off VMWare VMW ).

Looking ahead

Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be released on Friday morning. We will also get an update on Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment.

Friday’s earnings reports include Honeywell (HON) and Morgan Stanley MS ).

Trends, Support and Resistance

The index was able to rise above the 14,000 line, staying above the line even after a couple afternoon tests of the line.

The five-day trend and one-day trend lines point to a +0.24% gain.

The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.13% decline for Friday.

Wrap-up

Positive economic news in the morning was enough to lift the indexes, but not enough to see gains shared broadly across the market. The gain on higher volume is a positive, but it would be good to see the Advance/Decline number be above 1.0.

As the index inches toward a new all-time high, we can expect a bit more rotation as investors take profits and chase gains in other stocks. Trying to find those opportunities, rotating your own investments, can be tricky. So as always, its best to stick to the rules that work for you and your trading style, sticking with the stocks that are working for you.

That message is for me too. I’ve been burned by breaking rules too many times already in 2021.

Stay healthy and trade safe!

Comments

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